Pack Odds Calculator
Quick answer
The chance of at least one hit in n packs is 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ. Enter an estimated rate and a pack count to see the real probabilities — and why no number of packs guarantees a card.
Chance of ≥ 1 hit
30.4%
after 36 packs
Expected hits
0.36
average, not guaranteed
Chance of zero hits
69.6%
very possible
| Target chance | Packs needed (est.) |
|---|---|
| 50% | 69 packs |
| 75% | 138 packs |
| 90% | 230 packs |
Math: chance of at least one hit = 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ, assuming independent packs. If a rate is 1 in 100, opening 100 packs gives about a 63% chance — not a guarantee. Real products vary, and no number of packs guarantees a specific card.
Frequently asked questions
›If a card is 1 in 100 packs, does opening 100 packs guarantee it?
No. If an estimated pull rate is 1 in 100 packs, opening 100 packs does not guarantee the card. It means the statistical chance of at least one hit is about 63%, assuming independent odds.
›Where do the pull rates come from?
Most publishers do not publish official odds. Rates used with this calculator should come from community-observed data with known sample sizes — they are estimates, not guarantees.
›Why does the "packs needed" number grow so fast near 90%?
Because probability compounds: each extra pack adds a smaller and smaller slice of certainty. Going from a 50% to a 90% chance takes roughly 3.3× the packs.