Estimated Pull Rates by Set
Quick answer
Publishers rarely publish official odds, so these figures are community-observed estimates with sample sizes shown. They are averages, not guarantees — your packs can and will vary. Use them to set expectations and compare sets, never to justify chasing a specific card through packs.
Prismatic Evolutions Pokémon TCG
Estimated pull rates
Medium sample · 4 500 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Prismatic Evolutions hit tiers, aggregated from community openings.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Special Illustration Rare | ~1 in 135 packs | 0.74% | All SIRs combined |
| Umbreon ex SIR specifically | ~1 in 1 215 packs | 0.08% | Single-card estimate; very high variance |
| Any Illustration Rare | ~1 in 14 packs | 7.14% | — |
| Hyper Rare (gold) | ~1 in 180 packs | 0.56% | — |
Last reviewed:
Destined Rivals Pokémon TCG
Estimated pull rates
Medium sample · 3 800 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Destined Rivals hit tiers.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Special Illustration Rare | ~1 in 115 packs | 0.87% | — |
| Any Ultra Rare or better | ~1 in 15 packs | 6.67% | — |
| Any Illustration Rare | ~1 in 13 packs | 7.69% | — |
Last reviewed:
Phantasmal Flames Pokémon TCG
Estimated pull rates
Medium sample · 2 600 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Phantasmal Flames hit tiers.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Special Illustration Rare | ~1 in 120 packs | 0.83% | — |
| Mega Charizard X ex SIR specifically | ~1 in 950 packs | 0.11% | High variance |
| Any Illustration Rare | ~1 in 13 packs | 7.69% | — |
Last reviewed:
Mega Evolution: Ascended Heroes Pokémon TCG
Estimated pull rates
Medium sample · 2 100 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Mega Evolution: Ascended Heroes.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Special Illustration Rare | ~1 in 125 packs | 0.80% | — |
| Any Illustration Rare | ~1 in 14 packs | 7.14% | — |
Last reviewed:
Surging Sparks Pokémon TCG
Estimated pull rates
Larger sample · 5 200 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Surging Sparks hit tiers.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Special Illustration Rare | ~1 in 140 packs | 0.71% | — |
| Pikachu ex SIR specifically | ~1 in 1 350 packs | 0.07% | Single-card estimate |
| Any Illustration Rare | ~1 in 14 packs | 7.14% | — |
Last reviewed:
Pokémon 151 Pokémon TCG
Estimated pull rates
Larger sample · 6 100 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Pokémon 151 hit tiers.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Special Illustration Rare | ~1 in 145 packs | 0.69% | — |
| Charizard ex SIR specifically | ~1 in 1 450 packs | 0.07% | Single-card estimate |
| Any Illustration Rare | ~1 in 9 packs | 11.11% | — |
Last reviewed:
Evolving Skies Pokémon TCG
Estimated pull rates
Larger sample · 8 000 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Evolving Skies alt arts.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Alternate Art Secret | ~1 in 190 packs | 0.53% | — |
| Moonbreon (Umbreon VMAX alt) specifically | ~1 in 2 300 packs | 0.04% | Single-card estimate; extreme variance |
| Any V/VMAX Ultra Rare | ~1 in 9 packs | 11.11% | — |
Last reviewed:
Crown Zenith Pokémon TCG
Estimated pull rates
Medium sample · 4 400 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Crown Zenith / Galarian Gallery.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Galarian Gallery card | ~1 in 7 packs | 14.29% | — |
| Galarian Gallery VSTAR tier | ~1 in 90 packs | 1.11% | — |
Last reviewed:
Chaos Rising Pokémon TCG
Estimated pull rates
Small sample · 1 700 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Chaos Rising hit tiers.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Special Illustration Rare | ~1 in 125 packs | 0.80% | — |
| Mega Greninja ex SIR specifically | ~1 in 1 050 packs | 0.10% | Single-card estimate; high variance |
| Any Illustration Rare | ~1 in 13 packs | 7.69% | — |
| Mega Hyper Rare (gold) | ~1 in 700 packs | 0.14% | One card in the set |
Last reviewed:
Pitch Black Pokémon TCG
Estimated pull rates
Small sample · 320 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Pitch Black hit tiers, one week after release.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Special Illustration Rare | ~1 in 125 packs | 0.80% | Very small early sample |
| Any Illustration Rare | ~1 in 13 packs | 7.69% | Very small early sample |
Last reviewed:
OP16: The Time of Battle One Piece Card Game
Estimated pull rates
Small sample · 1 400 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for The Time of Battle chase tiers.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Alternate Art | ~1 in 24 packs | 4.17% | — |
| Manga Art (any Admiral) | ~1 in 500 packs | 0.20% | Extremely rare tier; extreme variance |
| SP reprint slot | ~1 in 120 packs | 0.83% | Reprints numbered from earlier sets |
Last reviewed:
OP-13 Carrying On His Will One Piece Card Game
Estimated pull rates
Small sample · 1 600 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Carrying On His Will chase tiers.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Alternate Art | ~1 in 24 packs | 4.17% | — |
| Super Alternate Art (Luffy/Ace/Sabo) | ~1 in 550 packs | 0.18% | Top tier; extreme variance. Red variants far rarer still |
| SP reprint slot | ~1 in 120 packs | 0.83% | Reprints numbered from earlier sets |
Last reviewed:
OP-14 The Azure Sea’s Seven One Piece Card Game
Estimated pull rates
Small sample · 1 500 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for The Azure Sea’s Seven chase tiers.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Alternate Art | ~1 in 24 packs | 4.17% | — |
| Manga Art (Mihawk) | ~1 in 490 packs | 0.20% | Extremely rare tier; extreme variance |
| SP reprint slot | ~1 in 120 packs | 0.83% | Includes the gold/plain Buggy reprints |
Last reviewed:
OP-15 Adventure on Kami’s Island One Piece Card Game
Estimated pull rates
Small sample · 1 450 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Adventure on Kami’s Island chase tiers.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Alternate Art | ~1 in 24 packs | 4.17% | — |
| Manga Art (any) | ~1 in 480 packs | 0.21% | Extremely rare tier; extreme variance |
| SP reprint slot | ~1 in 120 packs | 0.83% | Reprints numbered from earlier sets |
Last reviewed:
OP-05 Awakening of the New Era One Piece Card Game
Estimated pull rates
Small sample · 1 900 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for OP-05 chase tiers.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Alternate Art | ~1 in 24 packs | 4.17% | — |
| Manga Art (any) | ~1 in 480 packs | 0.21% | Extremely rare tier |
Last reviewed:
Fabled Disney Lorcana
Estimated pull rates
Small sample · 1 500 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Fabled chase tiers.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enchanted (any) | ~1 in 96 packs | 1.04% | — |
| Iconic (any) | ~1 in 600 packs | 0.17% | New top tier; small sample |
Last reviewed:
Winterspell Disney Lorcana
Estimated pull rates
Small sample · 1 100 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Winterspell chase tiers.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enchanted (any) | ~1 in 96 packs | 1.04% | — |
| Iconic (any) | ~1 in 650 packs | 0.15% | Two Iconics in the set; small sample |
Last reviewed:
Wilds Unknown Disney Lorcana
Estimated pull rates
Small sample · 900 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Wilds Unknown chase tiers.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enchanted (any) | ~1 in 96 packs | 1.04% | — |
| Iconic (any) | ~1 in 650 packs | 0.15% | Two Iconics in the set; small sample, extreme variance |
Last reviewed:
Attack of the Vine! Disney Lorcana
Estimated pull rates
Small sample · 350 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Attack of the Vine! chase tiers, one week after release.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enchanted (any) | ~1 in 96 packs | 1.04% | Very small early sample |
| Iconic (any) | ~1 in 650 packs | 0.15% | Very small early sample; extreme variance |
Last reviewed:
Ashes of the Empire Star Wars Unlimited
Estimated pull rates
Small sample · 400 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Ashes of the Empire chase treatments in standard boosters, one week after release.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Showcase (any) | ~1 in 300 packs | 0.33% | Very small early sample |
| Serialized (any) | ~1 in 1 200 packs | 0.08% | Numbered print runs; extreme variance |
Last reviewed:
Yu-Gi-Oh! Chaos Origins Yu-Gi-Oh!
Estimated pull rates
Small sample · 1 200 packsDemo dataObserved per-pack rates for Chaos Origins hit tiers.
| Category | Estimated rate | Per pack | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare (any) | ~1 in 12 packs | 8.33% | — |
| Starlight Rare (any) | ~1 in 480 packs | 0.21% | Deep 25-card tier; extreme variance per specific card |
Last reviewed: